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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
100 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021
 
After undergoing a brief convective bursting pattern, thunderstorm 
activity in the western semicircle of the Terry's circulation 
appears to have morphed into what appears to be a small squall line 
that is propagating westward away from the center. Recent 
scatterometer data indicated a small patch of 22-kt winds north of 
the center, so the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt, keeping 
Terry as a marginal tropical depression. The aforementioned ASCAT 
data also indicated that Terry's inner-core wind field was elongated 
east-to-west and that the low-level center was less defined compared 
to 12 hours ago.
 
A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering
Terry westward, or 270/13 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move
generally westward over the next few days with little change to
the general easterly steering flow expected. The new official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies along 
the southern edge of the tightly packed track guidance envelope.
 
Entrainment of dry mid-level air is forecast to continue for the 
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over slightly cooler 
water, with that negative combination of environmental parameters 
expected to prevent any significant convective organization and 
resultant strengthening from occurring. In fact, the latest model 
guidance suggests that Terry could devolve into a remnant low or 
open up into an inverted trough at any time during the next 72 
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory, following a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, 
which is a little below the intensity consensus models IVCN and 
NOAA-HCCA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 11.8N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 11.8N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 11.7N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 11.4N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 11.2N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1800Z 10.9N 127.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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