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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021
The depression has not become much better organized since
yesterday. Some small clusters of deep convection have formed to
the northeast and east of the center, and there are some thin
convective banding features over the southern and western portions
of the circulation. Cirrus-level outflow from the system is rather
weak at this time. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 30 kt
which is in general agreement with the latest Dvorak analyses from
TAFB and SAB, along with earlier scatterometer observations. The
latter data, however, suggest that this may be a slightly generous
estimate.
Latest center fixes indicate a continued westward motion, or around
265/6 kt. A mid-level ridge associated with a large high pressure
system centered over western Mexico should provide the primary
steering mechanism for the cyclone during the forecast period. A
mainly westward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is
expected, as the system encounters slightly stronger easterlies on
the south side of the ridge within the next couple of days. The
dynamical track guidance is in fairly good agreement, although the
GFS model is a bit of a northern outlier. The official forecast
track is similar to the previous one, and close to the model
consensus.
Since it is still not very well organized, the tropical cyclone
is not expected to strengthen much through today. Although the
environment is seemingly conducive for strengthening, the model
guidance is not very aggressive in showing intensification during
the next few days. This may be partially due to a lack of mid- to
upper-level instability ,as suggested by the decay-SHIPS output.
The official forecast, like the previous one, shows only slow
strengthening beginning tomorrow, following the intensity model
consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 9.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 9.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 9.2N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 9.0N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 8.9N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 9.1N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 9.5N 103.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 10.6N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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