ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
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Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
...RICK GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18
to 24 hours. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.6 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slightly faster motion
toward the north or north-northwest is expected over the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area by late Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible as
Rick nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is
expected, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
now occurring within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical
Storm Warning areas within the next couple of hours.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.