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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
...RICK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 101.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Watch eastward
to Tecpan de Galeana and has also extended the Tropical Storm
Watch eastward to Acapulco.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.4 West. Rick is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A 
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next 
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will 
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast through 
Sunday.  Rick is expected to become a hurricane today, and it 
is forecast to become a major hurricane on Sunday. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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