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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021
 
...PAMELA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 108.1W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya southward
to Escuinapa.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Bahia Tempehuaya
northward to Altata, and also from Escuinapa southward to San Blas,
including all the Isla Marias archipelago.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for extreme southern
Baja California Sur from Los Barilles southward to Cabo San Lucas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata
* South of Escuinapa to San Blas
* Isla Marias
* Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas
 
A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required tonight for portions of the current Watch areas by this
afternoon or evening.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was 
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Pamela is 
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general 
motion is expected to continue today.  A turn toward the north is 
forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster 
northeastward motion by Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, 
Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on 
west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and 
Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major 
hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch 
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by 
Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the 
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon.
 
RAINFALL:  Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall 
amounts through Wednesday:

Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango... 4 to 8 
inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may 
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.

Across southern portions of Baja California Sur... 2 to 4 inches 
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
 
SURF:  Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect
portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern
and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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