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Tropical Depression Pamela Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
As Pamela has moved further inland over the high, rugged terrain of
west-central Mexico, its satellite structure has deteriorated
markedly. Inland surface observations also suggest that the
system's low-level circulation is becoming ill-defined. Following
the typical rapid rate of decay of tropical cyclones over this
portion of Mexico, the maximum sustained winds are quickly
lowering, now estimated at 30 kt this advisory, making
Pamela a tropical depression.
The estimated motion continues to accelerate, now at 045/24 kt.
This motion and heading should continue until the system
dissipates over the higher terrain of Central Mexico this
evening. A 12 hour point in this forecast has been provided for
continuity purposes though the surface center will likely dissipate
beforehand. This track also represents where the remnant mid-level
vorticity maximum of Pamela will continue to propagate
northeastward. This feature is also associated with a deep-layer
moisture plume that is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall and
flooding impacts over the south-central United States.
1. Heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding associated with
Pamela will be diminishing through tonight over Mexico.
2. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through
Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 26.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 28.6N 100.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND