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Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to
Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane.
To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the
Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There
was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who
measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to
20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall
location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears
reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around
Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since
the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is
likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to have decreased to 55 kt.
The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this
morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further
acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains
embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough
over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over
the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast
period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model
consensus solutions.
Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over
the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are
expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be
advected northeastward into the south-central United States.
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later
today and on Thursday for these areas.
Key Messages:
1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this
morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia
Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still
expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the
Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit
through today. This will pose a threat of significant and
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today
into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban
flooding impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
$$
Forecaster Papin
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