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Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
* Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos
* Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area.
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower
forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and
then turn westward away from land by tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it
moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. It
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it begins
to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
hurricane warning area and will spread northward along the west
coast of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward across central portions of Baja California
Sur today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should end over
Baja California Sur by tonight.
RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging
SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.