ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021
...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Olaf is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the
southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move
westward away from land Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf
is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is
forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward
within the warning area on Friday.
RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of
far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of
the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa,
and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California
Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
Forecaster D. Zelinsky