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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
 
 
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