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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS
SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS
SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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