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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021
 
...NORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 105.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Nora.  Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was 
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 105.1 West. Nora is 
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A motion toward 
the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the 
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and pass very near the coast of 
the states of Jalisco and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night.  Nora 
is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California 
on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.   Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday.
 
Nora is a large tropical storm.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 275 miles (445 km)from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring
over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will
spread to the northern portions of the warning area through Saturday
night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across 
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, 
Colima, and Jalisco.  Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are 
forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 
inches possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides.

As Nora continues northwest or north-northwest, heavy rainfall will 
move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday.  
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum 
amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja 
California Sur.  Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may 
occur as a result. 

Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated 
with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern 
U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. 
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast
of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the
weekend and into early next week.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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