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Tropical Depression Kevin Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
Kevin is barely a tropical cyclone, as its exposed low-level center 
has been displaced over 100 n mi northeast of a few small bursts of 
convection for most of the night. In fact, the last semblance of 
organized convection with this sheared cyclone ended around 11/2100 
UTC. If Kevin is unable to generate any organized convection soon, 
the system could be declared a post-tropical remnant low later this 
morning. Overnight ASCAT-A/B passes only showed 25 to 30-kt winds, 
primarily in the eastern semicircle of Kevin. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which makes Kevin a 
tropical depression.  

Based on recent scatterometer fixes, it appears the broad center of 
Kevin is moving slightly more west-northwestward than before, or 
295/10 kt. A general west-northwest to northwest motion should 
continue through dissipation as the system moves along the 
southwestern side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains 
in good agreement, and the official NHC track forecast has been 
nudged slightly southward from the previous one based on the initial 
motion adjustment.  

The cyclone is already north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will 
move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable 
environment during the next couple of days. Thus, the development of 
new, organized convection near Kevin's center seems very unlikely. 
The official NHC forecast now shows Kevin degenerating to a remnant 
low later today, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model 
simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low should gradually spin 
down over the next couple of days before dissipating this weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0900Z 22.3N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
 
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