ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021
 
Kevin appears to be gradually gaining strength.  Satellite images
show that the storm has a central dense overcast feature that is
surrounded by fragmented curved bands.  The latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt.
 
The cyclone is moving westward, or 270 degrees, at 10 kt.  Kevin is 
expected to continue westward for about another day or so while it 
remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge to its north.  After 
that time, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as a mid- to 
upper-level trough erodes the western portion of the ridge, allowing 
Kevin to gain more latitude.  The models are in fairly good 
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of 
the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
The tropical storm is currently over warm 29 C waters and embedded 
in a very moist air mass.  These conditions support strengthening, 
but there could be a moderate amount of northeasterly shear that 
will likely prevent rapid intensification.  Nonetheless, steady 
strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kevin 
is forecast to become a hurricane during that time period. Beyond 
that time, however, progressively cooler waters and drier air should 
cause Kevin to level off in strength and then begin to weaken.  The 
NHC intensity forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus 
models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 15.8N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.7N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.7N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 16.9N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 17.7N 113.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 18.6N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 20.5N 118.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 22.2N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN