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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021
The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In
fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to
the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming
farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that
has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was
located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument
overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the
depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and
TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall
change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this
advisory.
The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to
become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters
along the forecast track should end that possibility by early
tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter
as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental
conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by
late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global
model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h.
The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move
west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn
westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its
southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of
the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous
advisory was needed.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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