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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072021
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 19 2021
 
Sub-25C waters, dry and stable air, and moderate west-southwesterly 
shear have taken their toll on Guillermo. The depression has now 
been devoid of organized deep convection for several hours and 
mainly consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. A blend of 
the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the 
UW-CIMSS ADT indicate that the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The 
path of the depression should keep it over waters of around 23-24C 
over the next few days. This combined with the other negative 
environmental factors should continue to prevent any long-lived deep 
convection from redeveloping. Therefore, Guillermo is now forecast 
to become a remnant low on Tuesday. Thereafter, the weakening vortex 
should open up into a trough within a few days.
	
Guillermo is now moving a little faster, with a 12-h motion of 
270/16 kt as it has become embedded within the easterly flow on the 
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This ridge is 
forecast to remain in place for several days, which should keep the 
depression on a west, or just south-of-west trajectory for the 
remainder of its existence. The official track forecast is near the 
previous one through 24 h, and then was nudged slightly to the south 
beyond 24 h due to a southward shift in the overall track guidance. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 19.3N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 18.5N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 18.0N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z 17.3N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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