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Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021
 
Felicia provided another surprise early this morning, with a ring
of very cold cloud tops (<-70 deg C) developing around the clear
eye of the tiny hurricane. The 12Z TAFB Dvorak analysis was
T6.5/127 kt and that is the basis for the 125 kt intensity
estimate. Cloud tops have warmed ever so slightly since 12Z, but
the hurricane's satellite presentation remains very impressive.
 
Due to the higher initial intensity, the first 36 h of the intensity 
forecast has been increased as well. Slight weakening is anticipated 
by tonight as Felicia begins to move over marginally cool SSTs. 
Internal factors such as eyewall replacement cycles are also 
possible with any major hurricane and could result in shorter-term 
intensity changes that are not reflected in the forecast. By around 
48 h, Felicia is forecast to move over waters below 26 deg C, and 
some models like the ECMWF and HWRF also indicate it could begin to 
encounter less favorable upper-level winds. If that solution bears 
out, Felicia could weaken even faster than indicated since the 
surrounding environment is fairly dry and the hurricane's small size 
makes it particularly susceptible to rapid intensity changes. The 
NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope 
through 36 h and near the intensity consensus by the end of the 
5-day period. It is worth noting that confidence is high that 
Felicia will weaken dramatically by the end of the forecast period, 
but considerable uncertainty remains in the details of exactly when 
and at what rate it will happen.

Only a slight northward adjustment was made to the track forecast. 
Felicia is currently moving westward near 7 kt, and that general 
motion will likely continue today. The dynamical guidance is in good 
agreement that small fluctuations in ridging to the north of Felicia 
should allow the hurricane to turn west-northwestward by Sunday, and 
then back toward the west in about 48 h.  An extensive deep-layer 
ridge centered over the central Pacific should then cause Felicia to 
gradually accelerate west-southwestward through the end of the 
forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is near but just 
south of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 14.6N 124.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 14.8N 125.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 15.2N 127.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 15.7N 129.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 16.0N 131.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 16.0N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 15.0N 141.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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