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Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021
 
The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night 
suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and 
recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been 
occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80 
degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the 
corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend 
of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the 
UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 
85 kt.
 
Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to 
the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of 
Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward 
for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once 
again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would 
result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. 
The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous 
one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance.
 
The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and 
the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over 
warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This 
should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday, 
Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to 
disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over 
slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually 
weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance 
through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions 
currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is 
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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