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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low 
pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better 
organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center.  In 
addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has 
become better better defined.  Based on this, advisories are 
initiated on Tropical Depression Six-E.  The initial intensity is 
set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 295/15.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the 
next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  Some decrease 
in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a 
mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens 
the ridge.  The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on 
this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the 
guidance envelope close to the consensus models.

The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical 
wind shear through the forecast period.  However, the sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the 
system is expected to move into a dryer air mass.  The intensity 
guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak 
intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity 
forecast follows the general trend of the guidance.  The forecast 
peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity 
guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 14.9N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 15.5N 117.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 15.8N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 15.7N 120.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 15.5N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 15.5N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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