ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021
 
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE CORE OF ENRIQUE PASSES
JUST OFFSHORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Mita to San Blas Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests in southern portions of the Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Enrique.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 106.0 West.  Enrique is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest and then northwest is expected tonight and Monday., 
and that general motion should continue thereafter for the next 
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane, 
along with the strongest winds, are expected to pass near the 
southwestern coast of Mexico tonight.
  
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected tonight.  Enrique is
then forecast to begin weakening on Monday and continue to weaken
through early this week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Enrique can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45
KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the
Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions will continue within portions of the tropical storm
warning through Monday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Through Tuesday, the eastern outer bands of Enrique are
expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal
sections of Jalisco, Michoacan, and northern Guerrero in southwest
Mexico.  These amounts would likely produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN