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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021
After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized
convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst,
beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly
well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to
-70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation
center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The
initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the
earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection,
though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective
satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB.
The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have
sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general
heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm
continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter,
the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could
bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24
hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the
previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift
after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's
center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the
cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small
circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja
California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression
in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after
moving over land.
Key Messages:
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the
next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will
continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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