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Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the 
past several hours.  An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary 
satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still 
characterized by fairly cold cloud tops.  The current intensity 
for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the 
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  A slow weakening trend 
is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a 
little less conducive environment.  Faster weakening is likely to 
commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, 
and entrainment of a more stable air mass.  The official intensity 
forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model 
guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction.

Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning 
to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now 
north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt.  A weak ridge that is forecast to 
develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone 
to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two.  This 
general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the 
steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is 
expected to move quite slowly for the next few days.  The 
official track forecast is close to the latest corrected 
consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble.
 
On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the 
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days.  A 
Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that 
area later today.  


Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, 
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.
 
2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect 
for a portion of that area.  Tropical-storm-force winds are 
expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico 
within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are 
possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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