ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
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Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
...DOLORES'S CENTER MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
the coast of Mexico.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located inland over Mexico near latitude 19.5 North, longitude
103.9 West. Dolores is moving faster toward the north-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of
Jalisco and Nayarit.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected this afternoon
and tonight while the center moves inland over the mountainous
terrain of west-central Mexico. Dolores is likely to dissipate
over west-central Mexico on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An inland station in the mountains at Sierra
Manantlan reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) during the past
few hours. A station at Colima reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area and will continue to spread inland across portions of
west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and
Additionally, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches is expected for western Oaxaca.
STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southwestern coast of Mexico
will gradually subside as the center of Dolores moves farther
SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.