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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA 
AND GUERRERO MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West.  Dolores 
is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward
speed Saturday and Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central
Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening.  Dolores is then
expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico
and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane 
strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by 
Saturday evening.  Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday 
while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast 
of Mexico.
 
Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) north and northeast of 
the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4,
WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the 
coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also 
possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm 
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
 
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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