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Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Dolores's circulation, and the associated weather, continue to move
farther inland over west-central Mexico, but it's hard to tell how
much of a surface circulation remains over the mountainous
topography of the region. Deep convection continues to develop near
the estimated center, likely with the help of some orographic lift
of onshore flow. Based on a typical decay rate over land, Dolores's
intensity is set at 45 kt, but there is higher-than-normal
uncertainty in this estimate given the effects of the terrain.
The heading remains toward the north-northwest (345 degrees), but
the speed has increased to 15 kt, likely due to the mid-level
circulation rotating around a mid-level low centered near Socorro
Island. If the surface circulation has not yet been mangled by the
mountainous terrain, it will soon, and the mid-level circulation
should then continue north-northwestward through tonight. The
new NHC forecast shows continued rapid weakening and depicts
Dolores as a remnant low in 12 hours, but in reality the
circulation may have dissipated by that time. This forecast
reasoning follows the quick dissipation of vorticity indicated in
the global model fields.
Even though Dolores is moving farther inland, the coastal watches
and warnings are being maintained on this advisory until there is
no longer a threat of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas.
1. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the
tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across
west-central Mexico through tonight.
2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 20.3N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND