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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021
Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the
center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this
convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone.
There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm
the strength of the cyclone's winds, and so the initial intensity is
set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in
agreement with the CIMSS ADT.
Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading
of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight
decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the
cyclone's existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge
to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.
Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that
have been disrupting the depression's convection will continue to
affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm
underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective
bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days.
In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to
northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east.
This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for
organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for
Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that
timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone
until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a
remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 9.8N 133.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 9.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 9.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 9.9N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW