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Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032021
800 AM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Several hours ago there was a burst of deep convection near the 
center of Carlos. Although cloud tops are beginning to warm, this 
convection gave Carlos a little more time as a tropical cyclone. 
There has been no new ASCAT data since early yesterday to confirm 
the strength of the cyclone's winds, and so the initial intensity is 
set at a somewhat uncertain 30 kt for this advisory, which is in 
agreement with the CIMSS ADT. 

Carlos has begun to turn back to the west and is now on a heading 
of 260/9 kt. This general motion, except for perhaps a slight 
decrease in forward speed is expected for the remainder of the 
cyclone's existence, as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge 
to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from 
the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus.

Dry and stable air along with strong vertical wind shear that 
have been disrupting the depression's convection will continue to 
affect the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Due to the warm 
underlying waters, there still may be some short-lived convective 
bursts near the center of Carlos over the next couple of days. 
In about 2 days, the shear vector will shift from southwest to 
northwest as an upper trough north of the depression shifts east. 
This subsident pattern should put an end to any chances for 
organized deep convection to return. The NHC forecast calls for 
Carlos to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h. However, that 
timing is uncertain, and Carlos could remain a tropical cyclone 
until the upper-level flow shifts in a couple of days. Once a 
remnant low, the system should dissipate within a day or two.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 10.0N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z  9.8N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z  9.7N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z  9.7N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z  9.7N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z  9.9N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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