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Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021
The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory,
with a band of convection near the center in the northern
semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the
center. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates range from 30-47 kt. Given the spread and the unchanged
structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.
The initial motion is 180/5 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large
mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and
northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn
northeastward during the next 12 h. After that, Wanda is expected
to accelerate toward the northeast. The current guidance is in
good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little
slower than the previous guidance. The new forecast track is
similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast.
Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude
low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h.
Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and
become an extratropical low. The global models subsequently
forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new
intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time. Otherwise, there
are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 37.0N 38.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 40.5N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 45.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1200Z 50.6N 18.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP