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Tropical Storm WANDA

Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
900 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021

Wanda has changed little in organization since yesterday evening.  
Bands of moderately deep convection continue around the storm 
center, but upper-level outflow is not as well-defined as in a 
typical tropical cyclone.  The advisory intensity estimate 
remains at 45 kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite 
estimate from SAB.  This is also in general agreement with earlier 
scatterometer observations.  The cyclone remains fairly small, with 
most of the stronger winds occurring over its eastern semicircle.

The storm continues moving a little east of north, or near 015/7 
kt.  Wanda should move on the eastern side of a mid-latitude trough 
for the next day or so.  After that time, the trough is likely to 
weaken and this should result in the system slowing down and 
turning eastward.  In 2 to 3 days, a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge 
is forecast to build to the northwest of Wanda which should cause 
the cyclone to move southeastward.  In 4 to 5 days, the cyclone is 
expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of another mid-latitude 
trough.  The official forecast track is similar to the previous one 
except a little more to the northeast in 36-60 hours.  This follows 
the latest simple and corrected model consensus solutions, and is 
also close to the average of the latest ECMWF and GFS model tracks.

The system has maintained its intensity in spite of being over sea 
surface temperatures of only about 23 deg C.  Wanda will pass over 
even cooler waters while it moves farther northward during the next 
24 hours or so, which may make it difficult for the system to 
produce much deep convection.  However, the storm has been resilient 
to seemingly hostile conditions so far, and the official forecast 
calls for Wanda to maintain its intensity for much of the forecast 
period.  This is similar to the latest intensity model consensus 
guidance.  By 96 hours, however, dry air and shear are likely to 
result in Wanda losing organized convection and becoming a 
post-tropical cyclone.  In 5 days, if not sooner, Wanda is likely 
to merge with a frontal zone, and return to its former 
extratropical status.

INIT  03/0900Z 38.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 39.3N  39.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 41.0N  39.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 41.9N  39.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 41.6N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 40.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 38.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 39.7N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  08/0600Z 46.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Forecaster Pasch