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Tropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212021
900 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021
Wanda has become a little better organized since yesterday evening
with convection, albeit not very deep, now wrapping around the
center of the storm. Apparently the vertical shear over the
cyclone has relaxed somewhat, and the center is now more embedded
within the convection. This implies that some strengthening has
occurred and the intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt for this
advisory. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak
satellite estimate from SAB. Interestingly, satellite-derived SST
analyses indicate that Wanda is currently located over a small patch
of warmer ocean waters, near 25 deg C.
The storm is moving a little faster toward the east-northeast, or
at about 060/7 kt. During the next couple of days, Wanda is likely
to remain embedded within a mid-tropospheric trough . A turn
toward the north is expected during the next 48 to 60 hours
while the system moves along the eastern portion of the
trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building to the west
and northwest of Wanda should force a turn toward the east and
east-southeast. The official forecast has been shifted to the
right of the previous NHC track at days 4 and 5, following the
latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the GFS
model shows a track significantly farther south at this later time
frame.
Although Wanda will soon be moving over cooler waters, the SHIPS,
LGEM, and HCCA intensity guidance indicate that the system will
strengthen a little more in the short term, and then more or less
maintain its intensity for the next 48 hours or so. This is
probably due to fairly low vertical shear and relatively cool
upper-tropospheric temperatures during this time. Later, gradual
weakening is likely, due to increased shear and cool waters.
However baroclinic effects could at least partially offset the
weakening process. The official intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, solution.
Around 72 hours, simulated satellite imagery shows a loss of
tropical cyclone-like cloud structure so the NHC forecast indicates
a post-tropical phase by that time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 35.0N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 36.1N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 37.8N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 39.8N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 41.6N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 42.6N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 43.0N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/0600Z 41.8N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/0600Z 41.0N 29.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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