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Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended eastward to Freeport Texas.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to High
The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Sabine Pass.
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward to Rutherford
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
* Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to Freeport Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including
* Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern
Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 95.5 West. Nicholas has
been meandering or drifting northward near 2 mph (4 km/h) over the
past couple of hours, but a north-northwestward motion near 12 mph
(19 km/h) is expected to resume by early Monday. A northward or
north-northeastward motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near
or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas
on Monday, and move onshore along the coast of south or central
Texas coast Monday night or early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf
coast Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas tonight through
the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into
southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding,
especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally,
there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river
Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas,
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected tonight into
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the
warning area through Monday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Monday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night
or early Tuesday.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible Monday into Monday
night across the middle and lower Texas coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will begin affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast tonight and continue into Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.