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HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122021
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST. SCHOTTS TO POUCH COVE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ST. SCHOTTS
* SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF POUCH COVE TO BONAVISTA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  61.6W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  61.6W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  61.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.5N  62.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.0N  60.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.8N  56.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE  90SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 51.3N  49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 210SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.0N  43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N  61.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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