ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072021
2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... 
GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* JAMAICA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  72.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  72.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  71.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N  74.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N  77.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.6N  80.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N  83.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.9N  86.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N  89.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.4N  95.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N  98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  72.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
NNNN