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BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE 
REMNANTS OF FRED...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of the remnants of Fred.  A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this
morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 25.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. While the center has 
jogged northward during the past few hours, the remnants are moving
generally toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  This 
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn 
toward the north expected on Monday.  On the forecast track, the 
system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the
east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and
move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later 
today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the 
Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:
 
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
 
Through Monday...
 
Florida Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated 
storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated.
 
Through Tuesday...
 
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated
maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected.
 
South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western
Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9
inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding
frontal boundary.
 
Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama,
portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal,
urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile
Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the 
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary 
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your 
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather 
Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Monday night or Tuesday morning.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two will be possible today into early
Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida
Panhandle.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN