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Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de
Avila, and Camaguey
* The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida
Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches
and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later
today. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the
progress of Fred.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the
forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near
the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida
Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the
Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that,
slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical
storm again tonight or Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen
ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning
SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning
Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.