ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys has been
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches could be required for
portions of this area later in the weekend.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday
night. On the forecast track, Fred or its remnants are expected to
pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over
the northern Gulf coast Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression on
Sunday, with gradual strengthening to a tropical storm expected
after the system re-develops.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys
and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3
to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected.
Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding
impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida
Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding
in northern Florida.
From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible in squalls
today across the Florida keys and the southern portion of the
SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please
consult products from your local weather office for more details.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon through
tonight across portions of west-central and south Florida.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.