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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVES BACK OVER WATER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to
Gonaives
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress
of Fred.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was 
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 73.5 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 
km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected 
during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. 
 On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the 
southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and 
central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys 
and south Florida on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow 
strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to
flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible
rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.
 
Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1
to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
 
Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.
 
Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred
will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to
5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern
Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy
rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with possible rapid river rises.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are
possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern
Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Cuba beginning later today.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next
couple of days.  These swells could reach the Florida Keys and
south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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