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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
2100 UTC THU AUG 12 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO OCEAN
REEF...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GRANMA
* THE FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH AND EAST TO
OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  75.3W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  75.3W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  75.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N  80.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.2N  81.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.4N  83.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 28.1N  84.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.5N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  75.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 13/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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