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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062021
2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR DOMINICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN 
COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE
EASTWARD AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  59.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  59.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  58.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N  61.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.8N  64.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N  67.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.2N  70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N  72.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N  75.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N  78.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  59.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN
 
 
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