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TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021
2100 UTC THU JUL 08 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 4( 4) 49(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CONCORD NH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
WORCESTER MA 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BOSTON MA 34 X 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BOSTON MA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 47(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BRIDGEPORT CT 34 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW HAVEN CT 34 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW LONDON CT 34 1 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
NEW LONDON CT 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 1 42(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLIP NY 34 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEWARK NJ 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TRENTON NJ 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
PHILADELPHIA 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 15 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
BALTIMORE MD 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOVER DE 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
WASHINGTON DC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
CAPE HENLOPEN 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 61 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
WALLOPS CDA 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
WALLOPS CDA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
RICHMOND VA 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
NORFOLK NAS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
NORFOLK NAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK VA 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
NORFOLK VA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
ROCKY MT NC 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHERRY PT NC 34 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
NEW RIVER NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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