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Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021
...ELSA OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
* New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 82.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster
northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa
will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on
Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or
over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday.
Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening
is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
generally southeast of the center near the Atlantic coast. A
WeatherFlow station on Jekyll Island, Georgia recently reported a
sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches)
based on surface observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight and along the South
Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
Across northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...additional 1 to
3 inches through tonight, with storm total amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Localized maximum storm totals up to 12 inches across southwest
Florida. Additional heavy rainfall may result in considerable
flash and urban flooding, along with continued rises to minor and
isolated moderate flood.
Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South
Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches
will be possible this evening into Thursday, which may result in
considerable flash and urban flooding.
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight
through Thursday night, which could lead to limited flash and urban
Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated
totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This
could lead to limited flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South
Carolina. The tornado threat should move into the eastern
Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.