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Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
...ELSA MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WHILE BRINGING
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Villa Clara, Mayabeque, Havana, and Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests in coastal Georgia and the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 81.6 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest on Tuesday and a turn toward the north on Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, Elsa is expected to continue to move
over west-central Cuba for the next several hours, move into the
Florida Straits this evening, and pass near the Florida Keys early
Tuesday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the
west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected while the
center moves over land. Some restrengthening is forecast after Elsa
moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of central
and western Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning area in the Florida Keys tonight and along the
Florida west coast beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the upper Florida Keys by tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Big Bend area beginning
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Bonita Beach, FL to Ochlockonee River including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba today, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will
result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the
Cayman Islands today, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This
rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys, the
Florida Peninsula and the coastal Southeast this week. Amounts of 2
to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches are
expected across Florida and coastal Georgia through Wednesday,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
Coastal portions of South Carolina and North Carolina are expected
to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local maximum amounts up to
5 inches Wednesday into Thursday, which could lead to isolated
flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across south Florida tonight
and across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the
southern coast of Cuba today. Swells will increase near the
Florida Keys and south Florida later today and spread northward
along the west coast of Florida tonight through Tuesday night.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.