ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
...ELSA APPROACHING CHESAPEAKE BAY...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Surf City,
North Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa
will pass through the eastern mid-Atlantic states tonight and move
near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday
night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Friday, and Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mostly southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station on Pamlico
Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) gusting
to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
mid-Atlantic coast overnight. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states on Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
Over the eastern Mid Atlantic States into New England...2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible
through Friday, which could result in limited flash and urban
flooding for the northern Mid-Atlantic States and considerable flash
and urban flooding in New England. Isolated minor river flooding is
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible overnight along the
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.