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Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021
...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south
of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach
* Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the
south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north
* New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including
Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, please see products from your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 79.7 West. Elsa is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the
eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the
northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system
should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the
system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
the North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by
this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in
the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
and impacts the rest of this week:
Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern
Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are
possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and
urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas
into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a
tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across
coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.