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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO
EGMONT KEY.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA FROM DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE...
VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CHASSAHOWITZKA TO THE STEINHATCHEE
RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ENGLEWOOD
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER
TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH
CAROLINA
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE...
VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS...THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  83.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  83.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  83.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.2N  83.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.6N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.3N  79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.1N  75.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N  70.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.6N  64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.0N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  83.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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