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TROPICAL STORM ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1800 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO SOUTH OF EGMONT KEY
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE 
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A 
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS 
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM 
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. 
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL 
OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  83.0W AT 06/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N  83.0W AT 06/1800Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N  82.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N  83.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.3N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N  80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.7N  76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.0N  60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N  83.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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