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TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
0300 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF HAITI FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  55.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  23 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  55.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  54.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.8N  59.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N  64.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  70SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N  69.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  70SE   0SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N  73.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N  76.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N  78.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.9N  81.7W...OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 28.2N  83.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N  55.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
 
 
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