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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi
of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets
the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the
circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity
satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A
pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the
center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of
the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal
26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical
wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the
current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent
any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near
the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken
and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.
The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should
continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or
southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the
weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
consensus track model TVCE.
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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