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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk 
of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully 
exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been 
held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity 
(CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 
04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this 
intensity.
 
Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone 
is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours 
or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into 
a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant 
low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under 
the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC 
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies 
close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE.
 
The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 
kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 
hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C 
will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, 
resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, 
followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely 
follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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