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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020
 
Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud 
tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated 
low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to 
locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of 
this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and 
TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is 
kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT 
data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure 
of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then.

Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 
315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as 
the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over 
Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to 
its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow 
system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer 
trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it 
comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow 
associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US 
coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this 
evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast 
track owing to the slightly further north initial position. 

While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic 
convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind 
shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be 
importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. 
This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves 
over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity 
forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with 
gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant 
low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
 
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