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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020

Corrected Time Zone Information

Odalys continues to be characterized by a broad, northeast to
southwest oriented circulation with rather sporadic deep convection
near the center along with some banding features well displaced to
the north and south. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed
little change in intensity, with an area of 30-35 kt winds in the
northeast quadrant. Based on these values and the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt.
 
Strengthening is no longer anticipated, as Odalys has not been able
to take advantage of the warm waters in an environment of ample
atmospheric moisture and moderate wind shear. By Thursday morning,
the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear while moving over waters of about 26 C. By late Thursday,
the system will also enter a dry and stable atmospheric environment.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause Odalys to weaken,
with the cyclone likely becoming devoid of deep convection in 2-3
days. The latest intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
various intensity guidance models.
 
Odalys is moving northwestward at 14 kt. A northwest to
west-northwest motion is expected to continue with some decrease in
forward speed for the next day or so as the storm moves on the
southwestern side of a mid-level ridge that is centered over
southern Texas and northern Mexico.  As Odalys weakens later this
week, a turn to the west and then the southwest is forecast as the
weaker and more shallow cyclone should be steered by the low-level
northeasterly trade winds. The models remain tightly clustered, and
the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 15.6N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 17.7N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 18.4N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 18.2N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 17.6N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 16.8N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 15.3N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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